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The Four Horsemen in a Relationship: What Studies Show

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The four horsemen of the apocalypse are four patterns in arguments that the couples researcher John Gottman named: criticism, contempt, defensiveness and stonewalling. In his studies they went with earlier divorces. The much-quoted claim that Gottman can predict divorce with 93% accuracy, however, doesn't hold up when checked. Here is what the studies show, what they don't, and what you can do differently in your next fight.

The four horsemen in a relationship, briefly explained

Criticism. You attack the person instead of the behavior. "You're so unreliable" instead of "I was upset that you didn't call." A complaint says what bothers you. Criticism says what's wrong with the other person.

Contempt. Mockery, sarcasm, eye-rolling, nasty nicknames. You talk down to the other. Contempt says: I'm better than you. It hits deeper than any factual argument.

Defensiveness. You defend yourself instead of listening. "Yes, but you also..." In the moment this feels fair. What reaches the other is: your problem doesn't interest me, it's not my fault.

Stonewalling. One person shuts down. Silence, looking away, staring at the phone, leaving the room without a word. This often happens when someone is so worked up inside that nothing more is possible.

The name comes from Gottman's 1994 book. His journal articles refer to it, but we didn't find the claimed order in which the horsemen supposedly follow one another.

What the studies really show

79 couples, 14 years

The key study on the four horsemen is the one by Gottman and Robert Levenson from 2000. In 1983 they brought 79 couples from Bloomington, Indiana, into the lab and filmed them talking about a topic they argued over. 14 years later, 22 couples were divorced, or 27.8%.

The divorces came in two waves. Nine couples split up on average 7.4 years after the wedding, thirteen only after 13.9 years. The early divorces went with the four horsemen in the argument: defensiveness, contempt and stonewalling in the men, criticism, contempt and defensiveness in the women. The late divorces went with something else, namely a lack of positive feelings, especially during the argument.

This is the part that often gets lost: over the long run, missing warmth stood out more than open war.

More positive than negative

With the same couples, Gottman and Levenson had already published an analysis after four years in 1992. In the arguments they counted positive moments (for example agreement, humor, calm description) and negative ones (for example criticism, defensiveness, put-downs). Couples where the negative outweighed the positive had split up more often within those four years: 36% versus 17%.

The well-known rule that happy couples have five times as many positive as negative moments isn't in this study. We didn't find it in any journal article we could read. It comes from Gottman's books.

The first three minutes

In 1999, Sybil Carrère and Gottman analyzed the arguments of 124 newlywed couples. According to their abstract, the first three minutes were enough to predict how the marriage would be doing six years later. The abstract gives no hit rate. The 96% you read online, we didn't find in any study.

Stonewalling and health

In a study of 156 long-married couples from the San Francisco area (Haase and colleagues, 2016), arguments were filmed and the couples were followed for 20 years. Men who stonewalled more in arguments reported complaints in muscles and back that increased more over the years. Men who showed more anger reported more heart and circulation complaints. This too is a link, not proof.

Can you predict divorce with 93% accuracy?

The number is in the abstract of the 2000 study. It was calculated on the same 79 couples the formula came from, and never tested on new couples. It's like building a league forecast from last season's results and then proudly announcing that it predicts last season almost perfectly.

Richard Heyman and Amy Smith Slep tested exactly that in 2001. They rebuilt Gottman's procedure with other data. On the data the formula came from, it was right 89.7% of the time. On new data, only 69.3%. And of all the couples the formula predicted would divorce, only 28.8% did split up in the end. Their conclusion: it is unwise to tell the public that divorce can be predicted precisely.

There is also an attempt to repeat Gottman's results. Kim, Capaldi and Crosby studied 85 couples in Oregon in 2007, many of them from difficult circumstances, and the main findings could not be confirmed there.

What remains: the four horsemen are patterns that went with problems in several studies. They are not a test that tells you whether you'll stay together.

What you can do differently in a fight

The remedies below come from Gottman's books and from couples counseling. They weren't tested in the studies above. But they fit what the studies observed.

Instead of criticism: start gently. Begin with what you feel and need, not with what the other does wrong. "I'm stressed because the kitchen is a mess, and I need help today" instead of "You never clean up." If the first minutes set the tone, it pays to be slow right there.

Instead of contempt: say what you appreciate. Contempt grows when anger piles up for a long time and is never said. The counterweight is appreciation, even on days without a fight. One concrete sentence in the evening is enough: "Thanks for booking the doctor's appointment for me today."

Instead of defensiveness: take responsibility for a part. "True, I didn't call. I'm sorry." You don't have to admit everything. One part is enough for the other to feel heard.

Instead of stonewalling: a break with a return. When one of you notices that nothing more is possible, a break is better than silently enduring it. What matters is that you say when you'll come back. What such break rules look like is covered in arguing in a relationship.

Warmth outside the fight. In the 14-year study, the late divorces went with missing positive feelings. Those hardly arise in the fight itself, but on ordinary days: a joke, a question, real interest in what's on the other's mind. One question a day, like the one Us2 asks you, is a small way there. Whether it helps against the four horsemen, nobody has studied.

Questions for a calm evening

Talk about the four horsemen on a relaxed evening. In the middle of a fight, any mention sounds like an accusation. For example like this:

  • Which of the four do you recognize in yourself most?
  • How do you notice that you're about to shut down?
  • What can I say so you don't feel attacked in a fight?
  • Is there something I do that feels condescending to you?
  • Which of our fights actually ended well, and why?

When to get help

If contempt is part of everyday life for you, if one of you constantly feels put down, or if you've been having the same fights for years, couples counseling can help. If contempt turns into threats or violence, it is no longer an argument pattern. Then get help: in immediate danger, call 911 in the US or 999 in the UK. The National Domestic Violence Hotline in the US is 1-800-799-7233, and the National Domestic Abuse Helpline in the UK is 0808 2000 247, both free and open around the clock. Elsewhere there are local services too: search for "domestic abuse support" plus your region and check the number on the official site.

More about John Gottman and which of his well-known numbers are backed up is in the guide on John Gottman. Practical ways out of an ongoing fight are in how to make up after a fight.

Sources

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