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John Gottman: What His Studies Show About Couples

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John Gottman is an American psychologist who has been observing couples in the lab since the 1980s: how they argue, how they talk, how their bodies react while they do. This work gave us the "four horsemen of the apocalypse," "bids" and the Gottman Method of couples therapy. Some of the best-known numbers credited to him, however, appear in none of his journal articles that we could read. Here is what is backed up, what isn't, and what you can still use.

Who is John Gottman?

From the 1980s on, Gottman worked with the psychologist Robert Levenson to bring couples into the lab. The couples talked about a topic they argued over while cameras ran and heart rate, sweat and movement were measured. Years later, the researchers checked who was still together. Later an apartment lab in Seattle was added, where couples spent a whole day and were filmed.

Gottman wrote books for couples based on these studies. At the Gottman Institute, he and his wife Julie Schwartz Gottman developed an approach to couples therapy, and the institute trains professionals in it.

What John Gottman's studies show

Small everyday moments: bids

A "bid" is a small attempt to connect: "Look at that bird," a joke, a hand on the shoulder. The other person can turn toward it, ignore it or turn it down.

In 2004, Janice Driver and Gottman analyzed 49 newlywed couples who had each spent 24 hours in a small lab apartment in Seattle. They watched ten minutes of dinner and counted playful bids and enthusiastic responses to them. Couples with more of these moments showed more shared humor and more affection in a later argument.

Two details make this more honest. The moments were rare, clearly fewer than one per ten minutes on average. And the study only observed and changed nothing, so it shows a link, not proof. The authors themselves write that couples probably build closeness through hundreds of quite ordinary moments, and they call this tentative support for their theory.

Arguments: the four horsemen

In a study of 79 couples followed for 14 years, early divorces went with criticism, contempt, defensiveness and stonewalling in the argument. Late divorces went more with a lack of positive feelings. The details and the criticism of this study are in the guide on the four horsemen.

When the body revs up

In a study published in 1985, Levenson and Gottman measured 30 married couples during an argument and found 19 of them again three years later. The more physically aroused the couples were during the conversation (pulse, sweat, movement), the more their satisfaction dropped over the following three years. That is a very small sample. But it is the origin of the idea that an argument tips over when one person is inwardly "flooded," and that a break helps then.

What other researchers have added

Other teams, using other methods, have followed up on Gottman's idea that closeness grows in small everyday moments. In 2004, Shelly Gable and colleagues studied how partners react when one tells the other something good. Among 89 married couples, an enthusiastic, interested response went with more satisfaction and closeness, while a lukewarm "Good for you" went with less. In 2010, Sara Algoe and colleagues had 67 cohabiting couples keep a diary for 14 evenings: people who felt gratitude toward their partner on one day were somewhat more satisfied with the relationship the next day.

Both are observations, not experiments. But they point the same way as Gottman's bids: it's the small reactions that happen more often in satisfied couples. More findings like these, with sources, are in what makes a good relationship.

Three Gottman numbers that are often misquoted

"Couples who stayed together turned toward each other 86% of the time, divorced couples only 33%." This number appears in a 2015 blog post by the Gottman Institute, with no source given. It is not in the two journal articles on bids that we read (Driver and Gottman 2004, Gottman and Driver 2005). Maybe it comes from one of his books. We couldn't verify it.

"Happy couples have five times as many positive as negative moments." In the 1992 study this is often traced back to, Gottman and Levenson counted positive and negative moments. Couples where the negative outweighed the positive in an argument had split up more often within four years: 36% versus 17%. A 5-to-1 ratio isn't in there. The direction is backed up, the number comes from the books.

"Gottman predicts divorce with 93% accuracy." The number is in the abstract of a 2000 study, calculated on the same 79 couples that the formula came from. When other researchers rebuilt the procedure on new data, the hit rate fell from 89.7% to 69.3%, and only 28.8% of the predicted divorces actually happened (Heyman and Slep, 2001). A replication with 85 couples in Oregon did not confirm the main findings (Kim and colleagues, 2007).

That doesn't make Gottman's work worthless. His observations show patterns that keep turning up. But in books and talks, those patterns became numbers that sound more precise than the research is.

What is the Gottman Method?

The Gottman Method is an approach to couples therapy built on these observations. Among other things, it works on couples knowing each other better, showing appreciation and starting arguments differently. Terms like "love maps" (how well you know the other person's inner world) come from this approach and from the books, not from a single study.

We could read one controlled study of a program from Gottman's circle: "Bringing Baby Home," a course for expecting parents. 136 couples were randomly assigned to a course group and a comparison group. Afterwards, fathers in the course group reported sharing the baby tasks more evenly. The mothers reported no clear difference. We found no controlled study on whether the Gottman Method reduces the four horsemen.

If you're looking for couples therapy, this method is one of several reputable routes. More important than the label is usually that you feel in good hands with the person.

What you can use tonight

These ideas are not proven recipes. They fit what the studies observed, and they cost little.

  • Notice small bids. When the other says "Look," look. When they make a joke, laugh or answer. These moments are rare enough that each one counts.
  • Make a bid yourself. Tell the other a small thing from your day that has no point. Conversations grow from exactly that.
  • Ask about the other's inner world. What's on your mind right now? What are you looking forward to this week? What are you a bit afraid of at the moment? You'll find more questions like these in questions for couples.
  • Keep something positive going in an argument. Agree once where the other is right. Describe calmly instead of accusing. Let a laugh happen if it comes.
  • Take a break when the pulse goes up. And say when you'll come back.

One question a day, like in Us2, is basically a fixed small bid to the other: each of you answers on your own, then you both see the answers and react to them. Whether that works like the bids in Gottman's observations, nobody has tested. But it makes sure such an offer is on the table once every day.

Sources

If you'd like to make each other a small offer every day, try Us2 free for three days, no payment details.

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